Hazardous weather today?

Ponca City Now - May 9, 2015 10:44 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
440 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101800-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
440 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN…
WESTERN…CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…

.THUNDERSTORMS…
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA…WITH AN ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION…
THE MODERATE RISK AREA INCLUDES ALL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM FREEDOM…TO CHEYENNE IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. AN ENHANCED RISK
SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK AREA…WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD…TO
WEATHERFORD OKLAHOMA…TO QUANAH IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT
RISK COVERS THE REST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING…
SPOTTY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS 9 AM…AND LAST THROUGH
TONIGHT…BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE FROM
4 PM TO 10 PM OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.

IMPACTS…
TORNADOES…SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA…VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH. IN ADDITION…HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT…

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MUCH OF
THE DAY…BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE 4 PM TO 10 PM WINDOW…WHEN THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION…
ANOTHER COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT…
WITH TWO DISTINCT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ROUND ONE…
A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTH TEXAS EARLY TODAY…RESULTING IN OUR FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SOME OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY BE SEVERE…POSING A
THREAT OF SPOTTY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING…
MOVING INTO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING…BUT
MORE LIKELY EARLY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT…ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
MORE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

ROUND TWO…
A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST AREA OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING…AS STRONG INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE…PROMOTING AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE
WIND FIELDS…THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY…
WITH THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL…TORNADOES…AND A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. AS THE STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS…INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES…AND ANY STORM THAT LINGERS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA WILL CARRY STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER…THIS
SCENARIO IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER ROUND OF STORMS. AT THIS TIME…IT
APPEARS SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOP…STORMS
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…

.THUNDERSTORMS…
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY…AS THE STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING…BUT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW
TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST…WITH A
BREAK IN THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

STORMS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST BY LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.HEAVY RAIN…
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

 

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