WASHINGTON (AP) — Voter turnout is soaring compared with the last midterm election in many of the states that are expected to decide control of the U.S. Senate, according to an Associated Press analysis of early voting two weeks before Election Day.
In Texas, early voting is up 74% compared with 2022. In Kansas it’s more than doubled. Maine, North Carolina and Ohio also have seen increases of more than 30% in early in-person and mail voting compared with the same point in 2022.
Democrats are trying to flip Republican-held Senate seats in each of those states. In most of them, Republicans are accounting for a smaller share of advance voters than they did four years ago.
The AP’s data, which runs through Tuesday, gives a snapshot of potential voter enthusiasm — and where it might be lacking — after early voting has opened in most states during a midterm cycle that has shifted in often unpredictable ways.” alt=”” />
Dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the persistently high cost of living, and high gas and diesel prices caused by the Iran war have generated political blowback against Republicans in places the party didn’t anticipate having to defend this year.
Nationally, more than 13 million mail-in and early in-person votes have been cast, compared with 9 million at the same point in 2022. The increase also reflects a few additional states that expanded their early voting opportunities and ones that made more of their data available since the last midterms.
Midterm elections typically favor the party out of power in Washington. With Republicans in control of both chambers of Congress and the White House, it’s a distinctly different environment than 2022, when Democrats were in charge.
Democrats energized by competitive Senate races in GOP-leaning states
Senate Democrats were expected to face a tough map this cycle, defending a number of battlegrounds with only a few opportunities to flip seats in areas Trump won by single digits in 2024. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber.
But with gas and diesel prices up significantly from where they were a year ago and Trump increasingly unpopular among voters, Democrats have been wading into traditionally Republican states, hoping to win there for the first time in decades.
Earlier this month, Republicans pulled back spending in a once-competitive North Carolina Senate race and dumped close to $12 million into Kansas, a state Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024, to support GOP Sen. Roger Marshall against Democrat Adam Hamilton.
Trump held a rally Monday in the state, where more than 55,000 people have cast their ballots so far — more than double the 27,000 people who had voted at this point in the cycle in 2022. That year, Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly narrowly won reelection while Republican Sen. Jerry Moran won overwhelmingly.
